What American politics will look like after 2020 is anyone’s guess. But we’re taking our best shot.
The latest from POLITICO’s 2020 Election Forecast: Ratings from Senior Elections Editor Steven Shepard for every national contest, from the 538 Electoral College votes to the 435 House districts — and everything in between.
We’ll be updating our ratings all the way through Election Day. Some key points from our most up-to-date predictions:
In the race for the White House, President Donald Trump is now an underdog to win a second term. There is still a plausible path for Trump to win an Electoral College majority — but it has grown much less likely.
The race for Senate control is now close to a coin flip, as Democrats build leads in states that were previously considered up-for-grabs — and put new states firmly on the map.
In the House, Democrats have strengthened their grip as the national environment has swung toward them. Our latest ratings have 217 seats in the Democratic column, only one shy of the majority.
The ratings are the product of a rigorous process, analyzing election results, registration trends, the national political environment, public polling and private survey data. They also reflect conversations with dozens of campaign operatives, pollsters and other sources.
They’re presented on a 7-point scale: Races that are “solid” for each party are essentially locked in. Those favoring one party are rated as “likely” or “lean,” depending on the strength of the party’s advantage. Contests in which one party does not hold a marked edge are rated as “toss-ups.”